Wednesday, March 26, 2008

So you think the world isn't changing?

What can we say about our world today? We are losing species and thus diversity as our human population and allied environmental impact grows day-by-day. Obvious enough, but what are we doing about it? We remain focused on economic wealth at the expense of our own futures. Well, that's probably true, although there is an altruistic side to humanity that will possibly - hopefully - one day get the better of greed.

In the meantime let's reflect on what's happening economically. An iconic powerhouse
like Ford is dumping its prestige brands one by one, raising cash for a last gasp attempt at survival, or just getting rid of failing brands. Does this say anything about the US economy, or US car companies in general, or US car company management vision? Probably a yes in all 3 boxes. From Fairfax: US automaker Ford has agreed to sell its luxury brands Jaguar and Land Rover to India's Tata Motors for more than $US2 billion ($A2.2 billion), a source familiar with the deal says.

So what does this say about India's economy, or the growth of Tata (a company that has fingers in many pies and plans to sell a super-cheap small car around the world)? I'd say India (and China) will be matching - perhaps passing - the US soon enough. 10 years, or 5? What will we make of that?

Meanwhile, again from Fairfax: Chinese cars are coming to Australia, but they won't necessarily undercut Korean cars on price. What does this say about the car market? Hello cheap small cars, goodbye to big, fat cars and luxo-barges, perhaps? Or about China's ambitions as an exporter of elaborately transformed goods? Or of Korea? What indeed do we imagine to be the effect on Japan and its car makers, or more likely, the US car makers? Anyone among the US car makers getting that sinking feeling?

Again from Drive, Fairfax's car section: If Americans take to the Commodore, it will help secure the future of Australia's favourite sedan. Sales of large cars in Australia are at a 14-year low as new-car buyers embrace imported vehicles in record numbers. What do we make of this? US-owned car maker can't adapt fast enough to survive in Australia, looks to export failing fat car to the biggest failing fat car market of them all, the US. Well "desperation" and "short-term solution" come to mind. If the US itself can't keep up with a changing market, how long will Holden survive as it tries to bolster its short-term future with poorly-targeted cars that the Aussie market doesn't want either? Are we getting that sinking feeling again?

Still, Holden sells far more fat cars in Oz than Ford, and it's better at exporting them, too. So Ford in Australia had better adapt, too, and fast. And it could be worse: Mitsubishi will build its last car in Adelaide on Thursday, ahead of the closure of its local assembly operations on Friday. If a Japanese manufacturer, admittedly one with a few problems everywhere, can't make a go of manufacturing in Australia, then what hope has anyone of making a go of it?

As it stands Australia is great at mining and shipping iron ore to Japan, China and Korea, and we buy their products in return. So it's a win-win whilst we have lots of iron ore and they build good cars and other products. But if the Aussie dollar turned around and bit us, and imported goods cost twice what they do now, where would we be? When you think about it we'd be better off as an exporter - and these dinosaurian local car makers would get some relief. And we'd be raking in even more export dollars. But gee inflation would go through the roof. Oh what a tangled web we weave.

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